[Gasification] [Bioconversion] Midwest Renewable Energy Fair [second try]

[MMBTUPR at aol.com]

          to Bioconversion List               from    Lewis L Smith

Stupid   AOL sent my message   before it was finished. So here we go again.

Hopefully a paper of mine will come out in August that addresses in detail 
many of Harmon Seaver's concerns.

Meanwhile, it is my considered judgment that the BEST we can say is the 
following, given the errors, lies and omissions in publicly available oil-industry 
data and the uncertainties surrounding many key factors, including future 
demand, supply and prices   ---

     [1]          World crude-oil production has not yet peaked but will do 
so in time to cause us plenty of trouble.

     [2]          The "crunch" year is more important than the "peak" year. 
The crunch year is the year in which world demand for crude exceeds the lower 
of the following --- physically available supply and the politically available 
supply.

     [3]          The slopes of the decline curves [by reservoir] are more 
important than either of these dates. 

     [4]          In the aggregate, these slopes are more likely to be steep 
than   shallow. However, without publication of a large amount of honest data 
for each reservoir, we CANNOT make accurate projections of these curves, and 
therefore of the aggregate world curve. Besides a reservoir is capable of 
switching curves in mid decline, as has happened in the North Sea.

     [5]          The big mitigating factors will not technological 
breakthroughs, such as those needed to achieve the "H2 economy", but the speeds at 
which certain existing technologies can be deployed, especially the ones for 
making middle distillates from biomass, insect larva, natural gas et cetera and for 
the gasification of coal in an environmentally acceptable manner.

     [6]          These speeds will vary by technology and by input and at 
present, are indeterminate for ALL mitigating technologies. I strongly suspect, 
however, that they will not be nearly as fast as we would like. To this 
degree, I share Harmon's pessimism, although I am probably on balance, more 
optimistic than he is. [On Tuesday I attend a demonstration of a new way to make H2 !]

     [7]          The most likely outcomes of the above are worldwide 
depression and regional "energy wars".   However, not possible scenario has more than 
a 45% chance of happening, if that.

Cordially. End of message.