[Gasification] USDA Crop Forecast, Corn & Ethanol...

Mark & Elena Gallmeier mgallmeir at comcast.net
Thu May 18 12:06:04 CDT 2006


To All,

...is out.  It's the hook for this story: 
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060512/ap_on_bi_ge/crop_report  USDA is 
forecasting a 15% - 30% increase this year in U.S. corn prices.  Ethanol 
demand was cited as the primary market force behind this expected move. 
USDA is forecasting a 34% one year increase in the amount of corn converted 
to ethanol.

And the wheat harvest is forecast to be the lowest since 2002, down 12 
percent from last year:
"Meanwhile, the nation's soon-to-be-harvested winter wheat crop is on track 
to be the smallest since 2002, analysts said. Farmers are expected to 
produce 1.32 billion bushels of winter wheat, down 12 percent from last 
year.  Drought in Texas, Oklahoma and throughout the central and southern 
Great Plains has dramatically reduced yields..."

Left unstated is the wheat acreage this year and how it compares to previous 
years.   A reasonable expectation is for corn and soybeans to now displace 
wheat on all acreage where realistic choices exist of which crops to plant.

Decline of Corn Reserves.

"Demand has risen so sharply, the amount of corn in storage is expected to 
drop to half of last year's levels, the department said.  "That's really 
good news," said McCauley, who farms nearly 4,000 acres with his son. "The 
more corn you have on hand, the less prices will go up.""

Great news alright.  Three millenia of ancient wisdom - carrying grain 
reserves to guard against events like drought reducing subsequent harvests - 
is now being replaced by Just In Time Agro-Manufacturing.  Even better are 
the New Farm Economics.  The old discredited system centered for thousands 
of years on increasing yields and productivity to increase farm incomes. 
'Value added.'   The new system is much simpler.  Drastically increase 
demand to raise prices strongly to increase farm incomes.

Well, too many Americans suffer from obesity anyway, so some lean years will 
help shape them up.  Time's running out to survey and stake claims to sites 
and prepare to farm those jumbo-sized family gardens in the USA, folks.  A 
lot of potential locations will need soil amendment which takes time. 
Barrel farming potatos will cause all scrap auto and truck tires to vanish 
in flash.

Mark






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