[Bioenergy] RE: [Gasification] USDA Crop Forecast, Corn & Ethanol...

[Kevin Chisholm]

Once upon a time there was a Smart Farmer. He went to his Agricultural 
Representative and asked him "How can I make money in Farming?"

The Ag Rep said "Cows are down, but there is good money in Pigs. Sell all 
your cows and buy more pigs."

So Smart Farmer sold off all his Pigs at the high price and bought cows at 
the low price. In three years, the price of cows went through the roof, 
because nobody wanted them three years previously, and Pigs were dirt cheap, 
because everyone got into pigs three years ago.

Then, he sold his cows and bought pigs...

There is a relevant Moral in there someplace. :-)

Kevin
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Roger Samson" <rsamson at reap-canada.com>
To: "'Mark & Elena Gallmeier'" <mgallmeir at comcast.net>; 
<gasification at listserv.repp.org>
Cc: <bioenergy at listserv.repp.org>
Sent: Thursday, May 18, 2006 3:44 PM
Subject: [Bioenergy] RE: [Gasification] USDA Crop Forecast, Corn & 
Ethanol...


> This story is better for a bioenergy posting. The Bush corn ethanol policy
> is in fact really great news for all US farmers. It's inevitable with the
> across the board rise in energy and mineral commodity prices that ag
> commodity prices were eventually going to increase somewhat, but now they
> could soar as demand for farm products for energy increases with the 
> massive
> construction of corn ethanol plants. However who will bail out the ethanol
> plants as they go bankrupt because of high corn prices and high energy
> prices to operate them.
>
> The real story is the need to redesign the bioenergy industry so that
> taxpayers, farmers and the environment win. Only the farmers that didn't
> invest in the corn ethanol plants and the agribusiness input merchants are
> the beneficiaries of the current corn ethanol policy. Once corn ethanol
> crashes we will begin to appreciate Pimentel's concerns about the energy
> balance of corn. He forewarned America about the coming corn ethanol
> boondoggle.
>
> Roger Samson
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: gasification-bounces at listserv.repp.org
> [mailto:gasification-bounces at listserv.repp.org] On Behalf Of Mark & Elena
> Gallmeier
> Sent: Thursday, May 18, 2006 1:06 PM
> To: gasification at listserv.repp.org
> Subject: [Gasification] USDA Crop Forecast, Corn & Ethanol...
>
> To All,
>
> ...is out.  It's the hook for this story:
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060512/ap_on_bi_ge/crop_report  USDA is
> forecasting a 15% - 30% increase this year in U.S. corn prices.  Ethanol
> demand was cited as the primary market force behind this expected move.
> USDA is forecasting a 34% one year increase in the amount of corn 
> converted
> to ethanol.
>
> And the wheat harvest is forecast to be the lowest since 2002, down 12
> percent from last year:
> "Meanwhile, the nation's soon-to-be-harvested winter wheat crop is on 
> track
> to be the smallest since 2002, analysts said. Farmers are expected to
> produce 1.32 billion bushels of winter wheat, down 12 percent from last
> year.  Drought in Texas, Oklahoma and throughout the central and southern
> Great Plains has dramatically reduced yields..."
>
> Left unstated is the wheat acreage this year and how it compares to 
> previous
>
> years.   A reasonable expectation is for corn and soybeans to now displace
> wheat on all acreage where realistic choices exist of which crops to 
> plant.
>
> Decline of Corn Reserves.
>
> "Demand has risen so sharply, the amount of corn in storage is expected to
> drop to half of last year's levels, the department said.  "That's really
> good news," said McCauley, who farms nearly 4,000 acres with his son. "The
> more corn you have on hand, the less prices will go up.""
>
> Great news alright.  Three millenia of ancient wisdom - carrying grain
> reserves to guard against events like drought reducing subsequent 
> harvests -
>
> is now being replaced by Just In Time Agro-Manufacturing.  Even better are
> the New Farm Economics.  The old discredited system centered for thousands
> of years on increasing yields and productivity to increase farm incomes.
> 'Value added.'   The new system is much simpler.  Drastically increase
> demand to raise prices strongly to increase farm incomes.
>
> Well, too many Americans suffer from obesity anyway, so some lean years 
> will
>
> help shape them up.  Time's running out to survey and stake claims to 
> sites
> and prepare to farm those jumbo-sized family gardens in the USA, folks.  A
> lot of potential locations will need soil amendment which takes time.
> Barrel farming potatos will cause all scrap auto and truck tires to vanish
> in flash.
>
> Mark
>
>
>
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