[Gasification] Corrupt government, conspiracy, new world order, no future.

[MMBTUPR at aol.com]

               from          Lewis L Smith

It will be interesting to see how Sen. Murkowski weighs in on the "hidden" 
oil reserves in Alaska.

In the meantime, I must protest "kennj's" mode of discourse. It is 
unprofessional and not acceptable in a professional discussion group.

Let us define a geological formation as a continuous region of subsurface 
rock which was produced by the same historic geological event, regardless of the 
time span involved. Let us define an oil reservoir as a subregion within that 
formation containing crude oil distributed in one or more fields subject to a 
common pressure gradient.

It is a well known fact that production from any reservoir will rise from an 
initial value to a peak or plateau and then descend to a point where it is no 
longer economically attractive, leaving MOST of the oil in the ground !   In 
the mode of descent, it is often necessary to inject some other material into 
the reservoir [ very carefully ] in order to maintain a pressure adequate to 
lift the oil to the surface. These materials include CO2, fresh water, natural 
gas, nitrogen and salt water. And if some of the water comes back up with the 
crude, it must be separated from the latter. All of this of course takes 
energy.

For example, the Ghawar collection of reservoirs in Saudi Arabia requires the 
injection of 32 barrels of sea water to bring up 100 barrels of crude. This 
collection produces about six percent of World crude-oil production.

In the 20th Century, there were several arguments at different times over 
when World production would peak. Their principal focus was on techniques of 
projecting future production from active reservoirs, based on past history and 
estimates of reserves in the ground. In that sense at least, one could say that 
the arguments were about some "theory of peak oil"   [ in the street or 
judicial sense of "theory", not the scientific 
sense. ] .

This time things are different. In the 1990's, Matthew Simmons, an engineer 
formerly employed by Saudi Aramco, began to have doubts about some of the 
statements Saudi engineers were making about the condition of Saudi reservoirs. He 
read some 200 papers presented by Saudi engineers at international confabs, 
confirmed his suspicions and then wrote a book, Twilight in the Desert, or 
something to that effect.

That stirred people up, and the more knowledgeable among them began to make 
their own calculations, in many cases without using data for reserves, which 
more than any other industry data, are full of errors, omissions and bald-faced 
lies. Ironically this omission probably makes their calculations more reliable 
!

Because of the deficiencies in production data, much of which is often a 
"state secret" at the reservoir level, they came up with different dates, like 
"already yet" [ 2004 ] and "far away" [ 2032 per Exxon/Mobil ]. Having waded 
through quite a few of these estimates, it is my professional opinion as an energy 
economist that it is impossible to pinpoint the peak year with an acceptable 
degree of accuracy. However, we can say that there is a 90% chance that an 
unsurpassable peak in World production of crude oil will occur by 2020, if not 
earlier.

Since this is only 12 years away and so well within the horizon of many 
strategic planners, it behooves them to make contingency plans, at the very least. 
>From their size, the "hidden" Alaska reserves [ if they are of the magnitude 
alleged ] may push that fatal year a few more years into the future, but it is 
my guess is that it will not get it outside the planning horizons of most 
strategic planners. So again, at the very least, some serious contingency planning 
is called for, even if you side with Cambridge Energy Research Associates, 
Exxon/Mobil, the Energy Information and other perpetual optimists.

In addition, I would like to point out two factors which are usually omitted 
in discussions of peak oil but which would tend to make the peak year come 
sooner rather than later.

[1]     The energy used to put a marketable liquid in a tank on the surface. 
We have already mentioned the injection of material into aging reservoirs, 
examples of which are Ghawar in Saudi Arabia and Cantrell in Mexico, already in 
decline despite injection. In addition, there is the energy required to obtain 
oil from unconventional sources, such as tar sands, which can run to the 
equivalent of 35-45% of the potential energy in the marketable oil produced. 

Once this energy consumption could be safely ignored. Now it cannot. Yet none 
of it is deducted from published figures, either for reserves or for 
production. So even if statistics for production and reserves of crude oil were all 
accurate and honest [ which they are definitely not ]   they would be seriously 
overestimated, in terms of what is available for conversion into salable 
products.

[2]     The rising consumption of energy is oil-producing countries. Iran, 
for example is already an importer of gasoline, because refinery expansion 
cannot keep up with the increase in domestic demand !   And in Qatar, whose gas is 
often seen as the "white knight" which will save oil consumers from their 
folly, much of the projected increase in production is already committed to 15,000 
luxury condominiums, an ammonia plant, a fertilizer plant, a steel plant and 
so on.

So the matter of peak oil is a difficult one, but it is definitely not 
"rubbish". An unsurpassable peak in World crude-oil production is coming. The only 
question is when. Since the odds are that "when" is within the planning 
horizons of most of the people who make investment and/or political decisions, it 
makes sense for concerned parties to stop insulting other participants in the 
discussion and do some serious contingency planning.


Sincerely.   ###


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