[Gasification] Proven oil reserves are not a measure of futuresupply of world petroleum. It is a well known fallacy in thepetroleum industry to treat them in this way, and it has had serious political consequences.

[MMBTUPR at aol.com]

          from          Lewis L Smith

He first he said that peak oil is "rubbish", with no explanation other than a 
link.

I gave him a lengthy and reasoned answer as to why it wasn't and expressed 
the following conclusion. There is a 90% chance that World crude-oil production 
will reach an all-time high by 2020 at the latest. 

His reply was merely that 2020 is "rubbish", with no explanation.

I don't think that that is way to conduct discourse in a professional 
discussion group, especially one whose primary concern is the technology of 
gasification.

Extending my previous remarks, I now venture the following guess. There is a 
60% chance that the subsequent decline will be steep rather than shallow or a 
plateau, but I am less certain of this latter statement than I am of the 
former, independent of the probabilities mentioned. If it is steep, there is a high 
probability of a Worldwide depression.

Sincerely. ###


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