[Gasification] Proven oil reserves are not a measure of futuresupply of world petroleum. It is a well known fallacy in thepetroleum industry to treat them in this way, and it has had serious political consequences.

[Kenn Johnsen]

Den 03/03/2008 kl. 10.50 skrev MMBTUPR at aol.com:

>          from          Lewis L Smith
>
> He first he said that peak oil is "rubbish", with no explanation  
> other than a
> link.


Well, a link to how much oil there is found until to day.......and  
that is till a hundred years.....and how much more is there, no one  
knows. But they find new oil almost every day.


> I gave him a lengthy and reasoned answer as to why it wasn't and  
> expressed
> the following conclusion. There is a 90% chance that World crude-oil  
> production
> will reach an all-time high by 2020 at the latest.


That is pure guess work, and not worth more than your other  
predictions........1997 and so on.


> His reply was merely that 2020 is "rubbish", with no explanation.


The amount of oil, shows your 2020 is wrong - rubbish.


>
> I don't think that that is way to conduct discourse in a professional
> discussion group, especially one whose primary concern is the  
> technology of
> gasification.


Your prediction 2004......aaaah maybe not......lets say 2020......that  
is not professional.


>
> Extending my previous remarks, I now venture the following guess.  
> There is a
> 60% chance that the subsequent decline will be steep rather than  
> shallow or a
> plateau, but I am less certain of this latter statement than I am of  
> the
> former, independent of the probabilities mentioned. If it is steep,  
> there is a high
> probability of a Worldwide depression.


Well, now you admit you are guessing. And it is rubbish, because how  
can you make those predictions......a steep decline of oil  
production......depression.......when there are all that oil reserve.  
In 12 years we will see that there are more proven oil reserve than  
there are to day.......and your responds.......the oil will peak in  
2030.....? that is not professional.
>
> Sincerely. ###
>
>
> **************
> Ideas to please picky eaters. Watch video on AOL
> Living.
>
> (http://living.aol.com/video/how-to-please-your-picky-eater/rachel-campos-duffy/2050827?NCID=aolcmp00300000002598 
> )
> _______________________________________________
> Gasification mailing list
> Gasification at listserv.repp.org
> http://listserv.repp.org/mailman/listinfo/gasification_listserv.repp.org
> http://gasifiers.bioenergylists.org
> http://info.bioenergylists.org