[Gasification] Proven oil reserves are not a measure of futuresupply of world petroleum. It is a well known fallacy in thepetroleum industry to treat them in this way, and it has had serious political consequences.

[David Rezachek]

Oil will never run out, but cheap oil will.

It will get more and more expensive to find and recover what is left.

Gone are the days when George Klampett of the Beverly Hillbillies was 
able to find crude easily just by shootin' at some food.

And, there will come a day (some say as soon as 2011, probably before 
2020) when production cannot meet demand.

Here are some statistics that show why we are in trouble.

.
.         Global Demand 2006 - 84.9 Mbbl/day
.         Projected Global Demand 2007 - 86.6 Mbbl/day

    -        1,000 Bbl/sec
    -        31.6 Billion Bbl/yr

.         Global Demand Increasing by 2%/yr

    -        >60% increase by 2030

.         China ~ 7%/yr; India ~30% over 5 yr
 
.         U.S. (Lower 48) Discovery Peak - 1930's
.         Global Discovery Peak - 1960's

    -        1960's -  47 Bbbls/yr
    -        1970's -  35 Bbbls/yr
    -        1980's -  24 Bbbls/yr
    -        1990's -  14 Bbbls/yr
    -        Recent ~  4 Bbbls/yr


Recent finds are averaging only 4 billion barrels per year (and 
declining). Recent use is 31.6 billion barrels per year and growing. 
That's a deficit of 27.6 billion barrels per year, and growing.

We better start finding more soon, by digging deeper and faster, or we 
are screwed.

Until we start finding more than we use, oil is going to be a limited 
resource.

I would be happy to provide a more detailed article on oil prices and 
supplies to anyone who is interested.

David Rezachek, Ph.D., P.E.
Honolulu, HI 96813