[Greenbuilding] FW: Cheap Solar Cells are Here

[Lawrence Lile]

The Future is here!  They predict dramatic drop in Solar Cell Prices,
huge increase in production capacity!  
 
Solar Electricity will be "Too Cheap To Meter" (Ha Ha, remember that
one?)   I'm ecstatic.  
 
 --Lawrence Lile

	
    Go to Original
<http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/280625_solarcell10.html> 

    Solar Cells Change Electricity Distribution
    By Dave Freeman and Jim Harding
    The Seattle Post Intelligencer

    Thursday 10 August 2006

    In separate announcements over the past few months, researchers at
the University of Johannesburg and at Nanosolar, a private company in
Palo Alto, have announced major breakthroughs in reducing the cost of
solar electric cells. While trade journals are abuzz with the news,
analysis of the potential implications has been sparse. 

    We approach this news as current and former public electric utility
executives, sympathetic with consumer and environmental concerns. South
Africa and California technologies rely on the same alloy - called CIGS
(for copper-indium-gallium-selenide) - deposited in an extremely thin
layer on a flexible surface. Both companies claim that the technology
reduces solar cell production costs by a factor of 4-5. That would bring
the cost to or below that of delivered electricity in a large fraction
of the world.

    The California team is backed by a powerful team of private
investors, including Google's two founders and the insurance giant Swiss
Re, among others. It has announced plans to build a $100 million
production facility in the San Francisco Bay area that is slated to be
operational at 215 megawatts next year, and soon thereafter capable of
producing 430 megawatts of cells annually.

    What makes this particular news stand out? Cost, scale and financial
strength. The cost of the facility is about one-tenth that of recently
completed silicon cell facilities. 

    Second, Nanosolar is scaling up rapidly from pilot production to 430
megawatts, using a technology it equates to printing newspapers. That
implies both technical success and development of a highly automated
production process that captures important economies of scale. No one
builds that sort of industrial production facility in the Bay Area -
with expensive labor, real estate and electricity costs - without
confidence. 

    Similar facilities can be built elsewhere. Half a dozen competitors
also are working along the same lines, led by private firms Miasole and
Daystar, in Sunnyvale, Calif., and New York. 

    But this is really not about who wins in the end. We all do. Thin
solar films can be used in building materials, including roofing
materials and glass, and built into mortgages, reducing their cost even
further. Inexpensive solar electric cells are, fundamentally, a
"disruptive technology," even in Seattle, with below-average electric
rates and many cloudy days. Much like cellular phones have changed the
way people communicate, cheap solar cells change the way we produce and
distribute electric energy. The race is on. 

    The announcements are good news for consumers worried about high
energy prices and dependence on the Middle East, utility executives
worried about the long-term viability of their next investment in
central station power plants, transmission, or distribution, and for all
of us who worry about climate change. It is also good news for the
developing world, where electricity generally is more expensive, mostly
because electrification requires long-distance transmission and serves
small or irregular loads. Inexpensive solar cells are an ideal solution.


    Meanwhile, the prospect of this technology creates a conundrum for
the electric utility industry and Wall Street. Can - or should - any
utility, or investor, count on the long-term viability of a coal,
nuclear or gas investment? The answer is no. In about a year, we'll see
how well those technologies work. The question is whether federal energy
policy can change fast enough to join what appears to be a revolution.

    -------- 

    Dave Freeman has been general manager of multiple utilities,
including the Tennessee Valley Authority, Los Angeles Department of
Water and Power and New York Power Authority. Jim Harding is an energy
and environment consultant in Olympia and formerly director of power
planning and forecasting at Seattle City Light. Also contributing was
Roger Duncan, assistant general manager of Austin Energy in Austin,
Texas.

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-----Original Message-----
From: Lawrence Lile [mailto:LLile at projsolco.com] 
Sent: Monday, August 14, 2006 5:46 PM
To: Michaelieu, Qhyrrae 
Subject: Emailing: hotdogsmaycausegeneticmutations

 

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--Love, 

 

Larry