[Greenbuilding] [BULK] Re: 500 Year Old Structure

[Lawrence Lile]

>I'd wager that human beings will not be on this earth in 500 
years--at least not many of them.


I'll take that wager, Ben, although I'll probably not be around to
collect!

One of my ongoing pet peeves with the environmental movement is, we tell
ourselves so many horror stories and environmental disaster stories that
we end up without hope.  

Now, let's rewind to the 1970's, when we told each other that Peak Oil
was imminent, and that oil would run out by 2000.  Yes, that statement
was true, known reserves of oil and conventional extraction techniques
of the day would have run out by now.  Since 1970, we have discovered
oil in the North Sea, off the coast of Africa, in Alaska, and our
ability to extract every last drop has increase dramatically. 

Now, I'd just as soon leave all that oil in the ground, but the point of
the story is that human ingenuity and resourcefulness is completely
discounted by our tales of woe. 

I would assume, by the tone of the last communication, that you'd
believe that Global Warming will get us all.  Well, if one is poor and
live on a low laying seacoast, I've got bad news for you.  If you are in
a well off country, several hundred feet above sea level, and don't mind
a few extra storms then global warming might not be more than
uncomfortable.  Meanwhile, human ingenuity is kicking in, in a big way:

Wind power is growing at 30% a year and can produce power at a capital
cost of $1 a peak watt

Need a job? Wind turbine installers are hiring like mad
www.suzlon-usa.com


New solar cells are just coming available that can produce power at a
capital cost of $1 a peak watt www.nanosolar.com

New technologies for carbon sequestration are being developed on a dozen
fronts

People like us are greening the planet as fast as we can go

Human ingenuity will forestall global warming.  I would hope that we
have a few less people in 500 years, by choice and planning, but I doubt
it.  But I am sure that a lot more of them will be walking to work, and
living in buildings that use very little resources, with technology we
are working out right here on this list.  

Just my 2c.  



Lawrence Lile, PE, LEED AP
Project Solutions Engineering