[Greenbuilding] More thoughts on Ethanol

[Ward Edwards]

The point that you miss is that the oil companies will soon not be able 
to produce oil for a few dollars a barrel.  Most of the easily produced 
oil is already been produced and soon we will hit the point were 
production will not meet demand (peak oil).  Within 50 years or so, 
unless oil consumption is highly curtailed, most of the oil that can be 
extracted will have been extracted.  We really needed to start looking 
for alternative about 30 years ago.

Ward Edwards

sanjay jain wrote:
> Lawrence,
> 
> Firstly let me say I agree that ethanol is no panacea and that change alway has some unforeseen consequences.
> 
> All those people that think we will replace gas by ethanol or even solar, miss a very simple point. What will the oil producers do once these technologies are available? The most likely answer is that they will lower the price. It's very had to compete with a high intensity energy source that you can simply take out of the ground. So oil will continue to be used for the foreseeable future.
> 
> Until we bring about a change from leadership based system, where a few people lead the herd, to a mode where most people make real empowered decisions and choices by them selves, we'll always have waves of unpredictable changes and fads.
> 
>> Another secondary effect is that high corn prices cause food
>> distribution disturbances in other countries.
> 
> The disturbance that would happen is the hindering of the existing disturbance - ie the subsidized dumping of food on world markets.
> 
> ~sanjay
> 
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> 
> Lawrence Lile <LLile at projsolco.com> wrote: 
> Here's another thought on ethanol.  The only thing I learned in
> Economics 101 (the rest didn't make any sense, and still doesn't) was
> that secondary effects matter.  
> 
> A primary effect of using ethanol as fuel is directly lowering
> greenhouse gas emissions, because the carbon in the stuff is made out of
> biomass. 
> 
> But a secondary effect of growing that biomass the way we do, is more
> greenhouse gas emissions, because we raise corn with diesel and make
> ethanol with heat made from coal. 
> 
> Another secondary effect is to boost the farm economy in rural states by
> raising corn prices.
> 
> Another secondary effect is that high corn prices cause food
> distribution disturbances in other countries. 
> 
> So the point here is, something that looks good on the face of it has
> far-reaching effects, some positive, some negative some really, really
> negative.  
> 
> We are seeing this because Ethanol is one of the first widely adopted
> alternatives.  
> 
> Now, stand back from the pros and cons of ethanol for a minute, and look
> at it this way:  Every time our economy switches from a major,
> polluting, conventional source of energy, there will be disruptions and
> secondary effects.  Let's say everyone in the country went out and
> bought a solar water heater right now.  Great!  You might say.  But
> there'd be 100 people fall off the roof and be killed installing them,
> there's be effects on propane and natural gas prices, there would be
> effects on manufacturing, there's be more jobs in some sectors, there
> would be less jobs in other sectors, and somehow, I can't tell you how,
> but somehow there would be some dire effect on some poor guy in the
> third world.  
> 
> Let's say we all decided to drive Prius's and other hybrids today.
> There'd be losers in the car biz, because some companies don't make
> efficient cars (listening, Ford?) There'd be small towns in Alabama with
> plant closings.  There would be effects on gas prices, less demand might
> lower the price and make everybody want to sell their hybrids next year.
> 10 years later there would be all these batteries to get rid of.
> Everntually there would be a scandal when someone figured out how to
> dump all those batteries in a Mexican neighborhood on the cheap instead
> of recycling them.  
> 
> If everybody rode the bus, like I experienced on a visit to Rio de
> Janero, the buses were groaning full and there was no room on them,
> despite one coming by at every streetcorner every ten minutes.  So you
> can't get anywhere on the bus.  Secondary effects. 
> 
> My prediction is that every time a new alternative technology becomes
> wildly popular, there will be totally unforeseen negative secondary
> effects.  These can be used to argue that (XXXYYYZZ) technology is bad,
> because it affects (AAABBBCC) in a bad way.  This will tend to increase
> the momentum of the status quo and block widespread adoption of
> alternatives. Or it will even be used as a counterargument by
> conservative forces bent on blocking any change.   We are seeing this
> with ethanol right now.  
> 
> The more rapidly we adopt a new technology, the more painful these
> unforeseen secondary effects may be.  We all want efficient, low
> greenhouse technologies to be widely adopted quickly.  Watch out what
> you wish for, as they say.
> 
> Ethanol is not a panacea, it is a baby step toward a different energy
> economy.  It won't replace gasoline, nothing will.  If we have vehicles
> at all in 25 or 50 years, they will run on a wide varying mix of energy
> sources, and they will be 3X as efficient as what we are tooling around
> in today, I predict.  The energy economy our grandchildren will live in
> will be far more diverse, and biofuels will be one small component of
> it.  After some point, the secondary effects of ethanol will settle out,
> we can hope.  
> 
> 
>  
>  
> Lawrence Lile, P.E., LEED AP
> 
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