[Stoves] Health and Global Warming Stats of PM

[Crispin Pemberton-Pigott]

Dear Dean and Lovers of Bad Math

>And the article estimates that 15% to 30% of global warming may be caused
by
>black PM. 

Suppose on a 100 year cycle, PMs are responsible for 25% of global warming,
by which I mean the total atmospheric forcing as calculated by various
models of atmospheric phenomena.

Let's say stoves are responsible for all of it, so it is something we can
change.

The average lifetime in the air of a PM particle is about 10 days.

Assumption: All the heat that will represent 25% of total forcing after 100
years is delivered to the atmosphere in the first 10 days of that 100 years
(CO2's contribution will more than catch up with time).

Q1.  This being the case, how much of a 1 degree rise in global temperature
in 20 years is due to PM's and how much is due to CO2?

Q2.  How much must the temperature rise in 10 days to equal 25% of the
total, 100 years later?

Q3.  What level of reduction (or level) in PMs must a stove have to make a
significant difference over a 20 year period.


A1.  A great deal, and very little

A2.  Astronomically, beyond all expectation and experience

A3.  Elimination, basically.

Conclusion: We should eliminate PM's for health reasons, not atmospheric
ones, because there is something wrong with those numbers.

Regards
Crispin