[Stoves] Acknowledging Crispins contribution

[Lanny Henson]

Crispin,
Thanks for contribution to the list. You make us all think! I know that I 
have learned a lot.
Lanny
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Crispin Pemberton-Pigott" <crispinpigott at gmail.com>
To: "'Discussion of biomass cooking stoves'" <stoves at listserv.repp.org>
Sent: Friday, May 02, 2008 6:46 PM
Subject: Re: [Stoves] Health and Global Warming Stats of PM


> Dear Dean and Lovers of Bad Math
>
>>And the article estimates that 15% to 30% of global warming may be caused
> by
>>black PM.
>
> Suppose on a 100 year cycle, PMs are responsible for 25% of global 
> warming,
> by which I mean the total atmospheric forcing as calculated by various
> models of atmospheric phenomena.
>
> Let's say stoves are responsible for all of it, so it is something we can
> change.
>
> The average lifetime in the air of a PM particle is about 10 days.
>
> Assumption: All the heat that will represent 25% of total forcing after 
> 100
> years is delivered to the atmosphere in the first 10 days of that 100 
> years
> (CO2's contribution will more than catch up with time).
>
> Q1.  This being the case, how much of a 1 degree rise in global 
> temperature
> in 20 years is due to PM's and how much is due to CO2?
>
> Q2.  How much must the temperature rise in 10 days to equal 25% of the
> total, 100 years later?
>
> Q3.  What level of reduction (or level) in PMs must a stove have to make a
> significant difference over a 20 year period.
>
>
> A1.  A great deal, and very little
>
> A2.  Astronomically, beyond all expectation and experience
>
> A3.  Elimination, basically.
>
> Conclusion: We should eliminate PM's for health reasons, not atmospheric
> ones, because there is something wrong with those numbers.
>
> Regards
> Crispin
>
>
>
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